SPORTS ADVISORS
Orlando (12-7 SU, 10-9 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS)
The Lakers return to the NBA Finals for the second straight year, hosting Game 1 at Staples Center against the upstart Magic, who were seeded third in the Eastern Conference and are in just their second championship series in franchise history.
Top-seeded Los Angeles pushed past Denver in six games, rumbling to a 119-92 rout Friday as a 5½-point road underdog to clinch the Western Conference finals in what was an otherwise very tightly played series. Kobe Bryant led the way in Game 6 with 35 points, 10 assists and six rebounds, Lamar Odom had 20 points and eight rebounds, and Pau Gasol finished with 20 points and 12 boards.
The Lakers, who won and cashed in Games 5 and 6 against Denver, shot a whopping 57.3 percent from the floor in the clincher and hit 9 of 16 from three-point land (56.2 percent), while holding the Nuggets to just 43.8 percent shooting. Bryant leads the Lakers in the playoffs, averaging 29.6 ppg, and Gasol is averaging a double-double of 18.2 points and 11.3 rebounds in the postseason.
Orlando shocked No. 1 overall seed Cleveland and LeBron James, posting a 103-90 victory Saturday as a two-point home favorite for a 4-2 series win as a massive series underdog.. Dwight Howard came up huge with 40 points (12 of 16 from the line) and 14 rebounds, and Rashard Lewis (18 points), Mickael Pietrus (14 points) and Rafer Alston (13 points) combined to go 10 of 21 from three-point range. The Magic held James to 25 points in the clincher, 10 below his playoffs-leading average, and they outrebounded the Cavs 47-34.
Howard has paced the Magic throughout the postseason, averaging 21.7 ppg and 15.4 rebounds per contest. Three other Orlando players are averaging double digits in scoring, with Lewis putting up 19.4 ppg, Hedo Turkoglu at 15.2 ppg and Alston at 12.7 ppg. Also, it appears the Magic will get a boost to their roster with the expected return of All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson. Nelson (16.7 ppg, 5.4 assists per game) has been out since early February with what was expected to be a season-ending shoulder injury.
Orlando swept the home-and-home series with Los Angeles this year SU and ATS, winning 106-103 as a 1½-point home pup in December and 109-103 as a 4½-point road ‘dog in January. Nelson was the catalyst in both victories, with 27 points in the home win, and 28 points and eight assists at Staples. Bryant had 41 and 28 points, respectively, in the losses for Los Angeles.
The Magic are 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) in the last five clashes in this rivalry. Additionally, the underdog is on a 6-0 ATS tear, and the road team has cashed in five of those six meetings.
Los Angeles is 44-7 SU (25-26 ATS) at home this season, including 8-2 SU (5-5 ATS) in the postseason. Orlando is 32-19 SU (31-19-1 ATS) on the road for the year, going 5-5 SU and ATS in the postseason. However, the Magic come into Game 1 having cashed in three of their last four on the highway.
The Lakers are on ATS upticks of 6-2 after three or more days off and 5-2 against teams with a winning road record. However, the pointspread trends turn downward from there for Los Angeles, including 1-10-1 in the NBA Finals – including 0-6 ATS in their championship series loss to Boston last year – 2-10 against the Southeast Division, 1-5 after a SU win, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 1-4 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points.
The Magic, meanwhile, are on 6-2 SU (7-1 ATS) run, dispatching second-seeded Boston and top-seeded Cleveland, and they carry impressive positive ATS streaks of 17-7 as a road pup, 19-7-1 against the Pacific Division, 20-7 versus Western Conference opponents, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 after a SU win. The lone negative: a 1-5 ATS slide after three or more days off.
For Los Angeles, the under is on tears of 8-2 overall, 5-0 at home, 27-9 when favored, 7-0 with the Lakers as a playoff chalk and 5-0 against Eastern Conference foes. Also, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings at Staples Center. On the flip side, the over for Orlando is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win and 4-0 when installed as a playoff ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Cincinnati (28-24) at St. Louis (30-23)
The Cardinals send revitalized right-hander Chris Carpenter (3-0, 0.62 ERA) to the mound at Busch Stadium to wrap up a four-game series with the N.L. Central Division rival Reds, who are scheduled to start right-hander Aaron Harang (5-5, 4.19).
The teams have alternated wins in the first three games of this set, with Cincinnati pounding out a 9-3 victory on Wednesday. Despite taking two of the first three against St. Louis, the Reds are still mired in funks of 2-4 overall, 2-7 on the highway (all against righties) and 2-5 versus winning teams.
The Cardinals remain on streaks of 9-6 overall, 24-11 at home, 6-3 against divisional rivals, 10-1 on Thursday, 8-3 versus winning teams. Also, even though Cincinnati now leads the season series 4-2, the host has still won nine of the last 13 clashes dating to last summer. Additionally, the Reds are just 17-37 in their last 54 games in St. Louis.
Carpenter appears to be fully recovered from elbow surgery that disrupted the bulk of the past two seasons. In his last outing Saturday, he allowed his first two earned runs of the year, but the Cards still won 6-2 at San Francisco. Carpenter scattered six hits, struck out five and walked one in six innings, and he now has 28 strikeouts against just five walks in his five starts.
Carpenter is 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in two home starts, most recently coming out on top in a 2-1 win over the Cubs on May 20, when he allowed just three hits and two walks in five innings. The 34-year-old is 3-3 with a 2.47 ERA in nine career starts against the Reds. Also, St. Louis is -30 in Carpenter’s last 107 starts overall and 41-13 in his last 54 home outings.
Harang got tagged for eight runs (all earned) Saturday in a 9-5 loss at Milwaukee, giving up 12 hits (three home runs) in just 4 1/3 innings. He’s yielded five or more earned runs in four of his 11 starts. The Reds are 0-3 in Harang’s last three road efforts, with the 31-year old going 0-2 and allowing 15 runs (all earned) in 17 2/3 innings (7.64 ERA). For the season, Harang is 1-3 with a 5.87 ERA in five starts on the highway, and Cincy is 3-14 in his last 17 starts as a visitor.
Harang is 7-9 with a 4.62 ERA in 19 career starts against St. Louis, though he did get the win in an 8-3 home victory last month, allowing three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out seven.
With Carpenter pitching, the Cardinals are on “under” streaks of 36-17-1 at Busch Stadium, 6-2 against divisional foes, 4-1 when facing the Reds and 5-0 when playing the Reds at home. Meanwhile, the under is 5-2-1 in Harang’s last eight road starts and 11-4-1 in his last 16 Thursday outings.
St. Louis carries “under” streaks of 11-4 overall, 8-1 at home, 7-2 versus divisional rivals and 8-2 against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the under is 16-7-1 in the Reds’ last 24 road games and 5-2 in their last six against divisional foes. Conversely, with last night’s game topping the posted total, the over is now 8-2 in the last 10 clashes in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER
Philadelphia (31-20) at L.A. Dodgers (37-18)
The World Series champion Phillies trot out ace left-hander Cole Hamels (3-2, 5.21 ERA) to open a four-game series against fellow southpaw Clayton Kershaw (3-3, 4.34) and the Dodgers, who have the best record in baseball.
Philadelphia wrapped up a three-game sweep in San Diego with Wednesday’s 5-1 victory over the Padres. The Phillies have won six in a row and lead the major leagues with a 19-6 road record this year, and they are on additional upswings of 16-6 against the N.L. West, 50-22 in series openers and 39-19 against left-handers.
The Dodgers finished a three-game home series against Arizona last night, eking out a 1-0 victory to improve to 20-6 at Dodger Stadium this season. Although Los Angeles has split its last six contests, it is on positive runs 36-17 overall, 21-8 against lefties and 8-3 versus winning teams.
Los Angeles took two of three games at Philadelphia last month in the first meeting of the season between these two, which snapped an 8-1 Phillies run in this rivalry that included winning last year’s best-of-7 National League Championship Series in five games. Philly is still 9-3 in the last 12 clashes overall but is just 2-6 on its last eight trips to Hollywood.
The Phillies have won three in a row and five of six behind Hamels, after coming up empty in his first three starts of the season. However, Hamels got beat up a bit Saturday against visiting Washington, allowing six runs (all earned) on eight hits and a walk in six innings, but he still picked up a 9-6 victory.
Hamels is 1-1 with an inflated 6.89 ERA in three road starts this season, though the high ERA is mostly because of a poor effort in his season debut, when he allowed seven earned runs in a 10-7 loss at Colorado. In fact, Philadelphia is 5-1 in his last six on the road. Hamels is 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA in three career regular-season starts against Los Angeles, getting a no-decision in last month’s 5-3 home loss. He also beat the Dodgers twice in last year’s NLCS, giving up a combined three runs in 14 innings (1.93 ERA) en route to winning the series MVP honor.
The Dodgers have won in four of Kershaw’s last six starts, including an 8-6 victory at Colorado on May 27 in which the 21-year-old lefty allowed three runs on four hits and four walks in six innings. In those six starts, Kershaw has allowed 10 earned runs in 35 innings, for a 2.57 ERA.
Kershaw is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA in four home starts this year, yielding just two earned runs in 24 innings, and the Dodgers are 8-1 in his last nine home outings. However, Kershaw is 0-2 with a bloated 7.80 ERA in three career starts against Philadelphia, including allowing four runs in five innings of a 5-3 road loss last month.
With Hamels starting, the under is on rolls of 11-4-1 overall, 6-0 with the lefty going on four days’ rest and 5-1 on the road, and the under is 7-2-1 in Kershaw’s last 10 starts against winning teams and 5-1-1 in his last seven when facing winning teams. Furthermore, the under for Philly is on streaks of 9-2-1 overall and 5-0 against left-handers, and the under has hit in five of L.A.’s last seven games overall and four of its last five series openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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